Fabiano Caruana Emerges as Top Favorite Ahead of 2026 Candidates Tournament in Cyprus

Fabiano Caruana Leads the Pack as 2026 Candidates Tournament Approaches

As the chess world gears up for the highly anticipated 2026 Candidates Tournament, set to take place from March 28 to April 16 at the luxurious Cap St Georges Hotel and Resort in Pegeia, Cyprus, all eyes are on two of the sport’s elite: Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana. Despite Nakamura holding a slight edge in world rankings, it is Caruana who emerges as the favorite among bookmakers, according to odds released by bet365.

The Candidates Tournament is a prestigious event that determines who will challenge for the FIDE World Championship, currently held by India’s rising star, Gukesh Dommaraju. This year’s tournament features eight of the world’s top Grandmasters, including Nakamura and Caruana, who are ranked second and third, respectively.

Caruana secured his spot as the first qualifier by winning the 2024 FIDE Circuit, while Nakamura clinched his place as the highest-rated player not already qualified, making for an exciting showdown between these two titans of the game.

Caruana: The Bookmakers’ Favorite

Despite being ranked lower than Nakamura, Caruana’s odds of 13/8 give him an implied probability of 38.1% to win the tournament, making him the top favorite. Nakamura follows closely with an implied probability of 27.8%, while India’s prodigy, R Praggnanandhaa, rounds out the top three with a 16.7% chance.

Praggnanandhaa, who also qualified late in the cycle by winning the 2025 FIDE Circuit, will be making his second consecutive appearance in the Candidates, adding another layer of intrigue to the tournament.

A Competitive Field Awaits

The tournament will not only feature Nakamura and Caruana but also other formidable competitors, including FIDE Grand Swiss winner Anish Giri, runner-up Matthias Bluebaum, and the trio of Javokhir Sindarov, Wei Yi, and Andrey Esipenko, who excelled at the FIDE World Cup.

As the countdown to the tournament begins, the chess community is abuzz with speculation and excitement. Will Caruana live up to his status as the favorite, or will Nakamura defy the odds and claim his chance at the world title? With such a competitive field, the 2026 Candidates Tournament promises to be a thrilling spectacle for chess enthusiasts around the globe.

Stay tuned as we bring you updates and insights leading up to this monumental event in the chess calendar!