The Geopolitical Fallout of Assad’s Regime Collapse in Syria: Shifting Alliances and Regional Instability
The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent shockwaves throughout the region, with geopolitical alliances shifting and new threats emerging. After more than a decade of civil war, Assad’s survival was dependent on complex relationships with Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah. Now, as questions arise about the circumstances of his downfall, the region is left in a state of uncertainty.
Iran, a key ally of Assad, has suffered a significant blow to its influence with his regime’s collapse. The offensive that led to Assad’s removal has also weakened Hezbollah and isolated Iranian forces, reshaping the regional power dynamics. However, the vacuum left by Assad’s regime has created opportunities for rival factions to vie for control, posing new and unpredictable threats to neighboring countries like Israel.
Israel, in particular, is facing a rapidly changing security environment. While the demise of Assad offers a temporary reprieve, the rise of extremist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham near its northern border is cause for concern. With ambitions that extend beyond Syria’s borders, HTS poses a direct threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia, complicating efforts for disengagement by the US.
Russia, another key player in the Syrian conflict, is also facing uncertainty. The hasty withdrawal from bases amid HTS’s advance raises questions about Moscow’s future in Syria. Losing strategic footholds in the region could have far-reaching implications for Russian power projection, not just in the Middle East but also in Africa.
As competing agendas play out in Syria, the battlefield has become fragmented with various factions vying for control. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces see an opportunity to consolidate autonomy, but face threats from Turkey and its proxies. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed militias continue to pose a threat to Israel, even in the wake of Assad’s downfall.
Jordan, a traditionally moderate ally in the region, is also navigating complex dynamics with Islamist groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. By tolerating these groups, Jordan risks reinforcing Iran’s regional ambitions and undermining stability in the region.
The collapse of Assad’s regime has far-reaching implications for neighboring states like Lebanon and the Gulf states, as well as for autocratic regimes relying on foreign support to maintain authority. For Israel and its neighbors, navigating this new chapter in the Middle East will require strategic alliances, intelligence capabilities, and diplomatic engagement to mitigate the risks posed by extremist actors and shifting power dynamics. The future of the region hangs in the balance as regional and international actors make critical decisions in the aftermath of Assad’s fall.