Analysis of the Logistical and Cost Problems Behind a European Presence in Ukraine

Europe faces significant logistical and cost challenges in providing a military presence in Ukraine, as highlighted by Sky News military analyst Sean Bell. While the UK has expressed readiness to deploy troops to ensure its safety in a future peace deal, the US has ruled out sending troops to Ukraine. European nations, including Poland, are exploring ways to support Ukraine but have not committed to sending land forces.

The issue of providing enduring security guarantees to Ukraine is complicated by the reluctance of the US to support Ukrainian NATO membership. With a potential need for a military stabilisation force of at least 100,000 soldiers, Europe’s collective military capability has weakened over the years, posing challenges for mounting such a force.

Rotation of troops and sustaining an enduring deployment further complicates the issue, with the British army alone likely only able to sustain a deployed force of 10,000 personnel. Without US military support, a credible European military commitment would be difficult to deploy and sustain.

President Trump’s call for Europe to take more responsibility for collective defense means that even doubling investment in military capability would take years to translate into equipment. Decades of underinvestment in defense have left critical vulnerabilities for European nations and the NATO alliance.

The need for a robust military capability is clear, but the challenge lies in how to achieve it and at what cost. As European leaders grapple with competing demands for national resources, the priority for any nation remains national defense as an insurance policy against an uncertain future.