The Geopolitical Stakes of Iraq’s Upcoming Parliamentary Elections: A Critical Inflection Point for Sovereignty and Influence

Iraq’s Upcoming Elections: A Geopolitical Flashpoint

Baghdad, Iraq — As Iraq gears up for its parliamentary elections on November 11, 2025, the stakes extend far beyond domestic politics. The looming presence of a geopolitical tug-of-war between the United States and Iran casts a long shadow over the electoral landscape, with both powers vying to shape the future of Baghdad.

Since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iraq has become a battleground for external influence, with Tehran and Washington emerging as key players. The upcoming elections represent a crucial moment for both nations: the U.S. aims to bolster centrist, nationalist forces while Iran seeks to maintain its grip through political alliances and economic entrenchment.

A Fragile Security Landscape

The elections come at a time when Iraq faces a fragile security environment, a weary electorate, and a fragmented political elite. Observers warn that rather than fostering stability, the elections could ignite renewed contestation. The future of Iraq’s sovereignty, the role of armed non-state actors, and the viability of democratic governance hang in the balance.

Iran’s strategy involves leveraging its extensive network of Shiite parties and the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The Shiite Coordination Framework (CF), a significant political entity, is poised to negotiate with the Iraqi government on various issues. Despite public fatigue with armed factions, these parties remain electorally viable due to established patronage networks.

Iran’s Calculated Approach

In recent months, Tehran has adopted a more measured tone, reportedly urging its allies to tone down anti-American rhetoric and focus on state-building. "Iran is playing a longer game," noted a senior Western diplomat in Baghdad. "They know that raw militancy is no longer sellable to the Iraqi public."

Iranian officials have also engaged in discreet diplomacy, meeting with Kurdish and Sunni leaders to ensure that post-election alliances do not marginalize Tehran’s interests.

U.S. Strategy: A Minimalist Approach

The U.S. has shifted its strategy in Iraq from direct state-building to a more minimalist approach focused on process integrity. American diplomats are encouraging key figures like Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani to maintain neutrality on regional conflicts. U.S. officials view the elections as an opportunity to empower moderate factions within the government.

However, the U.S. military presence remains a contentious issue, with American bases still facing occasional rocket fire from Iran-linked groups. The potential for violence looms large, especially if the electoral outcome is perceived as unfavorable to Tehran.

Fragmentation and Uncertainty

The Shiite political landscape is increasingly fragmented, with rifts widening between pragmatic factions and ideological hardliners. Muqtada al-Sadr’s ambiguous political stance adds another layer of uncertainty, as his grassroots movement retains significant influence.

In the north and west, Kurdish and Sunni factions are recalibrating their alliances, recognizing their potential as kingmakers in the post-election landscape. Both Tehran and Washington are courting Sunni leaders, but many voters remain skeptical of foreign influence.

Security Concerns and Election Integrity

As the elections approach, security concerns are paramount. The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) and Iraqi Security Forces are preparing for potential violence and cyber manipulation. Given the low trust in political parties, voter turnout is expected to be low, particularly in urban areas.

Two Possible Futures

The outcome of the elections could lead Iraq down two divergent paths. If nationalist and moderate Shiite forces secure a majority and Kurdish-Sunni blocs agree to power-sharing, Iraq may enter a phase of cautious stability. Conversely, a deadlock or perceived marginalization of key players could trigger renewed violence and unrest.

The November vote is not merely a national referendum; it serves as a geopolitical litmus test. The future of Iraq—whether it emerges with a stronger central state or sinks deeper into fragmentation—will depend on the ballots cast and the maneuverings in Tehran, Washington, and Baghdad’s Green Zone.