Study Finds GM Hikaru Nakamura’s Streaks on Chess.com Are Statistically Expected, Despite Criticism from GM Vladimir Kramnik

World-renowned statistician Jeffrey S. Rosenthal has recently conducted a study that sheds light on GM Hikaru Nakamura’s impressive winning streaks on Chess.com. The study, titled Probabilities of Streaks in Online Chess, meticulously analyzed Nakamura’s performance over 57,421 games from 2014 to 2024. Rosenthal’s findings indicate that while Nakamura’s streaks are exceptional, they are well within the expected probabilities for a player of his caliber.

The study has sparked controversy within the chess community, with former world champion Vladimir Kramnik strongly criticizing the report. Kramnik accused Chess.com of manipulation and dismissed Rosenthal’s findings as “completely ridiculous.” He raised concerns about the statistical analysis and questioned the validity of the study’s conclusions.

Rosenthal, a Professor of Statistics at the University of Toronto, defended his research, explaining that the probability of Nakamura achieving such streaks naturally is not as unlikely as it may seem. Using the Elo rating system, Rosenthal calculated the likelihood of Nakamura’s streaks occurring and found that they were well within statistical expectations.

Despite Kramnik’s objections, Rosenthal’s study aligns with independent analyses conducted by other experts in the field. Shiva Maharaj, Nick Polson, Vadim Sokolov, and Kiril Bobyrev have all independently concluded that Nakamura’s winning streaks are not statistically improbable. IM Kenneth Regan also weighed in, highlighting the importance of proper statistical techniques in analyzing chess performance.

The debate surrounding Nakamura’s streaks continues to unfold, with Kramnik challenging Rosenthal to a live discussion to debate the study’s findings. As the chess world grapples with questions of probability and performance, Rosenthal’s study offers valuable insights into the statistical realities of online chess.