Kwara 2027: The Strategic Political Chess Game Between Saraki’s PDP and AbdulRazaq’s APC

Analyzing the Emerging Contenders and Tactical Maneuvers in Kwara State Politics

Kwara 2027: The Chess Game of Saraki’s PDP and AbdulRazaq’s APC

By Yushau A. Shuaib

In the intricate landscape of Kwara State politics, the past two months have unfolded like a high-stakes chess match, with strategic moves and counter-moves shaping the future of the region. As the major political parties gear up for the 2027 governorship election, the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) are embroiled in a battle that transcends mere electoral ambitions.

While the emergence of candidates may seem straightforward, seasoned observers recognize the deeper contest at play—one driven by strategy, ambition, and the quest for political survival. Many aspirants have invested heavily in nomination forms and mobilizing support, yet within their own camps, there’s an understanding that some ambitions are less about winning and more about positioning themselves for future political maneuvers.

The first major twist came when Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq endorsed Ambassador Yahaya Seriki from the Ilorin Emirate as his preferred successor. This endorsement was seen as a resolution to months of speculation regarding the governor’s intentions, particularly amid pressures from influential Abuja interests favoring a candidate from the Yoruba-speaking Kwara South. However, the APC national leadership intervened, insisting on a direct primary election, which ultimately led to a surprising outcome.

In a tense two-day primary, Salihu Yakubu Danladi, the Speaker of the Kwara State House of Assembly from Kwara North, emerged victorious, defeating a host of aspirants from the Ilorin Emirate, including respected lawyers and former senators. This unexpected victory has set the stage for a renewed rivalry between AbdulRazaq and former Senate President Bukola Saraki, whose PDP is now rallying behind Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu Agaka, a Yoruba-speaking Fulani from Ilorin.

Saraki’s strategic move to unify the PDP ranks signals an attempt to consolidate the traditional Kwara Central political bloc, especially in light of the APC’s choice of a candidate from Kwara North. This rivalry, rooted in the political landscape since 1999, is not merely a remnant of the 2019 “O To Ge” revolution but a reflection of ongoing power dynamics in the state.

Emerging opposition parties are also making their presence felt, with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) announcing Hon. Zakari Mohammed as its consensus candidate. Speculation surrounds the National Democratic Congress (NDC), which may endorse either Mallam AbdulRahman Giwa, a cousin of the governor, or Engr. Jamiu Bolaji.

As the political chess game unfolds, the question remains: are these emerging parties genuine alternatives or merely strategic spoilers? The answer lies in their ability to influence voter dynamics across the three senatorial zones of Kwara.

Both Yakubu Danladi and Bolakale Kawu have distinguished themselves beyond partisan politics. Danladi, born in 1985, has rapidly ascended the political ladder, becoming one of Nigeria’s youngest Speakers at just 34. His educational background in engineering and his tenure in the Kwara State House of Assembly have solidified his influence within the APC.

Conversely, Kawu, born in 1969, boasts a robust career in Nigeria’s power sector and carries significant cultural weight as the Daniyan of Ilorin. His philanthropic efforts and community development initiatives have earned him respect across the political spectrum.

The unfolding contest is fascinating, with both parties choosing candidates based on strategic calculations involving geography, identity, and voter psychology. The APC’s choice of a youthful candidate from Kwara North aims to consolidate northern support, while the PDP’s backing of a respected technocrat from Ilorin seeks to rebuild the Saraki-era coalition.

As Kwara 2027 approaches, the political chessboard is set. If Kwara North aligns with Danladi and Kwara Central backs Kawu, will Kwara South emerge as the decisive battleground? The next governor will likely be the one who best navigates the delicate dynamics of this evolving political landscape.

Yushau A. Shuaib is the author of “An Encounter with the Spymaster.”